HAMILTON, Ont. – Ontario University Athletics (OUA) has determined the possible football playoff scenarios depending on game outcomes this Saturday, Oct. 25.
Heading into the final week of the regular season, the York Lions (0-7), Waterloo Warriors (0-7), Toronto Varsity Blues (2-6) and Queen’s Gaels (2-5) have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The top two positions have been claimed by CIS No. 3 ranked McMaster Marauders (7-0) and the No. 6 ranked Guelph Gryphons (6-1). With their Week 1 34-27 (OT) win over Guelph, the Marauders have secured the first playoff seed and will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Since their defeat to McMaster, Guelph has won six games in a row and will enter the playoffs as the second seed.
Last season, the Golden Hawks found themselves on the outside looking in on the final weekend. But this season, Laurier is right in the thick of things as the regular season wraps up. There are only two scenarios where Laurier wouldn’t qualify for the postseason, both of which would require a Laurier loss combined with Ottawa and Carleton victories.
While Ottawa and Laurier will certainly have their hands full with the top two seeds in OUA this weekend, Carleton will face the previously eliminated Queen’s Gaels. Despite opening the season 0-5, the Gaels have won two straight games and stand in the way of a young Ravens squad looking to make OUA playoffs for the first time since rejoining the league last season.
Of the three remaining teams competing for two playoff spots, the Ottawa Gee-Gees have the most difficult path to the playoffs. Though it is mathematically possible for the Gee-Gees to make the playoffs, the squad must beat the undefeated Marauders and would still require some help from around the league.
For full playoff scenarios and the implications of this weekend’s games, please see the below.
First Place Tiebreak Scenario
ONE: If McMaster loses to Ottawa, and Guelph defeats Laurier then both teams will be tied at 7-1. McMaster would be the #1 seed as they defeated Guelph in the regular season.
Second Overall Tiebreak Scenarios
There are two possible scenarios for the second OVERALL position between Guelph, Western & Windsor.
TWO: If Guelph loses to Laurier, and Windsor defeats Western then both teams would be tied at 6-2. Guelph would be the #2 seed as they defeated Windsor in the regular season.
ONE: The winner of the Western/Windsor game will finish 3rd.
ONE: If Western, Laurier, Carleton & Ottawa all lose then Western (5-3) would finish fourth, Carleton (4-4) would finish fifth (record against common opponents), Laurier (4-4) would finish sixth (record against common opponents) and Ottawa (4-4) would finish seventh.
TWO: If Laurier wins and Western, Carleton & Ottawa all lose then Western (5-3) would finish fourth (head to head), Laurier (5-3) would finish fifth, Carleton (4-4) would finish sixth (head to head) and Ottawa would finish seventh.
FOUR: If Ottawa wins and Laurier, Carleton & Western all lose then Ottawa (5-3) would finish fourth (record against other teams in the division, starting at the top of the standings), Western (5-3) would finish fifth, Laurier (4-4) would finish sixth (head to head) and Carleton (4-4) would finish seventh.
SIX: If Ottawa wins, and Laurier, Carleton and Windsor lose then Windsor (5-3) would finish fourth (head to head), Ottawa (5-3) would finish fifth, Laurier (4-4) would finish sixth (head to head) and Carleton would finish seventh.
NINE: If Carleton and Ottawa win, and Laurier and Windsor lose then Carleton (5-3) would finish fourth (head to head), Windsor (5-3) would finish fifth (head to head over Ottawa), Ottawa (5-3) would finish sixth and Laurier (4-4) would finish seventh.
THIRTEEN: If Laurier and Carleton win, and Ottawa and Windsor lose then Laurier (5-3) would finish fourth (point difference in head to head competition), Carleton (5-3) would finish fifth (head
FOURTEEN: If Laurier and Carleton win, and Ottawa and Western lose then Western (5-3) would finish fourth (point difference in games within the division), Laurier (5-3) would finish fifth (head to head against Carleton), Carleton (5-3) would finish sixth and Ottawa (4-4) would finish seventh.
FIFTEEN: If Laurier, Carleton, and Ottawa win and Western loses then the four way tie would be broken by record against common opponents. Ottawa (5-3) would finish fourth (record against other teams in the division, starting at the top of the standings) and Laurier (5-3) would finish fifth, Western (5-3) would finish sixth (record against common opponents) and Carleton (5-3) would finish seventh.
SIXTEEN: If Laurier, Carleton and Ottawa win and Windsor loses then the four way tie would be broken by record against common opponents. Laurier (5-3) would finish fourth (record against common opponents), Carleton (5-3) would finish fifth (head to head against Windsor and Ottawa), Windsor (5-3) would finish sixth (head to head against Ottawa) and Ottawa (5-3) would finish seventh.
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