No real surprises last weekend as the favourites all advanced to their respective conference finals setting up a great weekend of football as the road to the 2015 Vanier Cup gets shorter. In AUS action the StFX X-Men knocked off Acadia to advance to the Loney Bowl, for the second year in a row against Mount Allison. Moving west to Quebec, the annual Laval/Montreal clash errr Dunsmore Cup will feature the Carabins and Rouge et Or duking it out for supremacy in the Q.
On to Ontario where the favourite Western Mustangs advanced, but at what cost? QB Will Finch went down in the third quarter and his status for Saturday is doubtful at best. Their opponent will be the fifth ranked Guelph Gryphons who knocked off Carleton to secure their spot in the 2015 Yates Cup. Finally out west, the nation’s number one team in the nation, the Calgary Dinos got their first scare of the year in a 37-29 win over Saskatchewan. The Dinos trailed for much of the first three quarters, finally taking the lead for the first time early in the fourth. The Dinos will host the UBC Thunderbirds who destroyed Manitoba 52-10, in last weekend’s other CanWest semi-final.
In the first round of the playoffs, I went 6-1 to boost my season mark to 64-14, not bad considering my start. Below are my picks for this week’s conference finals.
CFC CIS PREVIEWS & PREDICTIONS: THE CONFERENCE FINALS
AUS CONFERENCE FINAL: 2015 LONEY BOWL
SAINT FRANCIS XAVIER X-MEN (6-3) @ MOUNT ALLISON MOUNTIES (6-2) – Saturday Nov 14th 14h00 AST Alumni Field – PREVIOUS MEETING(S): October 10th: Mount Allison 27 @ StFX 17, October 31st: StFX 24 @ Mount Allison 18
THE MATCH UP: In a rematch of last year’s AUS final the Mount Allison Mounties will host, perhaps the conference’s hottest team the Saint Francis Xavier X-Men. The Mounties won the regular season crown despite numerous injuries and the week off no doubt paid dividends, while the X-Men who got hot down the stretch were probably best served by continuing to play.
StFX PLAYERS TO WATCH: RB Ashton Dickson, QB Tivon Cook, DL Jimmie Cunningham, LT Vernon Sainvil , REC Randy Roseway, SB Donald Taber, LB Daniel Tshiamala,
MOUNT ALLISON PLAYERS TO WATCH: DE Shaun Robinson, DT Christian Plante, REC/KR/PR Idahosa Yorke, QB Brandon Leyh, LB Te Nguyen, Kiel Ambursley*, WR Dakota Brush*
*Asterisk denotes injured player(s)*
WHY StFX MIGHT WIN: The X-Men have as much or more talent than anyone in the conference and if Cook can stretch the defense and give Dickson room to run, the X-Men could be on the way to the national semifinals.
WHY MOUNT ALLISON MIGHT WIN: If the Mounties get any of their injured offensive starts back, look out. RB Chris Reid is unlikely out since week two and as of print Ambursley is doubtful. If either play…. they are game changers. Brush was banged up missed game seven and is a question mark (although he played in the season finale).
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: The week off should pay dividends for Mount A and I like the Mounties being fresh in this one.
FINAL SCORE: MOUNT ALLISON 26 StFX 21
RSEQ CONFERENCE FINAL: COUPE DUNSMORE 2015
#4 MONTRÉAL CARABINS (6-3) @ #2 LAVAL ROUGE ET OR (7-1) – Saturday Nov 14th 15h30 Stade Telus – PREVIOUS MEETING(S): September 5th: Montreal 9 @ Laval 12, October 17th: Montreal 22 Laval 18
THE MATCH UP: Call this the rubber match. In 2013 Laval defeated Montreal 14-11 in Quebec City, 2014 saw Montreal win a thriller in overtime, 12-9 also in Quebec and of course the two teams split this season with the home team winning each time.
MONTRÉAL PLAYERS TO WATCH: QB Gabriel Cousineau, RB Sean Thomas Erlignton, , REC Regis Cibasu, DB Malko Zepeda, REC LM Normandin, DB Vincent Chabot
LAVAL PLAYERS TO WATCH: QB Hugo Richard, REC Tyrone Pierre, RB Maxim Boutin, LB Shayne Gauthier, DL Mathieu Betts,
WHY MONTRÉAL MIGHT WIN: The Carabins defense will keep this tight, and if Montreal can win the field position and turnover battle….
WHY LAVAL MIGHT WIN: The Rouge et Or defense will keep this tight, and if Laval can win the field position and turnover battle (where have I heard that before?). Pretty much two very even matched contenders, homefield and the crowd’s energy could be the difference
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Just looked up “coin toss” in the dictionary…it had a photo of these two teams playing. This is the epitome of “too close to call” as the nation’s first and second ranked defenses square off. I am going with Laval because they are the home team and that’s about all that separates these two. You might want to bet the under in this one.
FINAL SCORE: LAVAL 16 MONTRÉAL 14
OUA CONFERENCE FINAL: 2015 YATES CUP
#5 GUELPH GRYPHONS (8-1) @ #2 WESTERN MUSTANGS (9-0) – Saturday Nov 14th 15h30 – TD Stadium – PREVIOUS MEETING(S): N/A
THE MATCH UP: In a rematch of the 2014 OUA semi-final, Western will try to avenge their last loss as Guelph and Western square off in the Yates cup for the first time since 2007, a 34-21 Western win. Throughout 2015 Guelph was seen as the only team with a shot of knocking of Windsor and if not for an upset loss against Queen’s we would be looking at two unbeaten teams. The best run team in the OUA (and country) will go toe-to-toe against the conference’s best run defense.
GUELPH PLAYERS TO WATCH: LB John Rush, QB James Roberts, RB Johnny Augustine, HB Nick Parisotto, FS Tristan Doughlin, RET Ryan Nieuwesteeg, REC Jacob Scarfone, LB Curtis Newton
WESTERN PLAYERS TO WATCH: QB Will Finch*, QB Stevenson Bone, RB Yanic Harou, RB Alex Taylor, RB Cedric Joseph, FS Jesse McNair, LB Jean-Gabriel Poulin, REC Matt Uren, REC George Johnson, DL John Biewald
*Asterisk denotes injured player*
WHY GUELPH MIGHT WIN: Guelph held Carleton running back Jahvari Bennett to 48 yards last week after having averaged 126 yards per game during 2015. Laurier gave Western fits last week and expect Guelph to exercise a same style of game plan, just with better talent. If The Gryphons force Western to rely on the run, and Finch doesn’t play….
WHY WESTERN MIGHT WIN: Stevenson Bone is not some guy they grabbed off campus, a talented QB who saw plenty of action, including playoffs last year, can easily lead the uber talented Mustangs to victory. The ‘Stangs are not a “QBcentric” offense and just need a pivot that can manage the offense. If the defense shuts down the Gryphons….
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: With Finch Western would be a 10 point favourite, without Finch?? Here is your upset of the week.
FINAL SCORE: GUELPH 31 WESTERN 30
CANWEST CONFERENCE FINAL: 2015 HARDY CUP
#6 UBC THUNDERBIRDS (7-2) @ #1 CALGARY DINOS (9-0)– Saturday Nov 14th 15h30 McMahon Stadium – PREVIOUS MEETINGS(S): Sept. 4th UBC 16 @ Calgary 49
THE MATCH UP: In the season opener for both teams way back when, the Dinos crushed UBC 49-16. But this is a much different UBC squad. The Thunderbirds have won five in a row and seven of their last eight, taking on all comers in the process. Peaking at the right time there is no reason the T-Birds can’t score the upset.
The Dinos were tested for only the second time all year and trailed until late in the third when they nodded things up at 19 against Saskatchewan. After storming through the CanWest regular season, the unbeaten Dinos are still the favourite but look a little less intimidating than before.
UBC PLAYERS TO WATCH: QB Michael O’Connor, LB Terrell Davis, LB Mitch Barnett, RB Brandon Deschamps, RET Trivel Pinto, SB Will Watson, SB Marcus Davis, DB Stavros Katsantonis
CALGARY PLAYERS TO WATCH: QB Andrew Buckley, RB Mercer Timmis, REC Brett Blaszko, REC Rashaun Simonise, LB Doctor Cassama, LB Micah Teitz, DB Robert Woodson, DL Cory Robinson, REC Austen Hartley
WHY UBC MIGHT WIN: The Thunderbirds seem to be peaking at the right time, Penn State transfer Michael O’Connor has settled in nicely at the QB position and the once suspect defense has steadily improved each week. UBC was lights out last week and if they force turnovers, and can play the same smothering D, they will be in this one until the end.
WHY CALGARY MIGHT WIN: Calgary has the most talent in the conference but having said that they did last year as well. If the Dinos protect the ball and don’t try and force things when it gets tight they should be able to pull away late.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: UBC is drastically improved, but at the end of the day Calgary has a little more firepower and the stronger defense.
FINAL SCORE: CALGARY 38 UBC 26
Record Last Week: 6-1 Overall Record This Season: 64-14
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